Updated: Sep 21
The 4th of July has come and gone, and so has the 2nd quarter mark of the MLB season! From things I got very wrong to who will win the World Series, this post covers everything from the first 80(ish) games of the MLB season!
Getty Images/Circuit Artwork
A few months ago we all thought there might not be baseball until the 4th of July… Now we’re halfway through the season! From the Yankees kicking everyone’s ass to the Rockies… oof. Before we get into playoff & award predictions, let’s have some fun and see what I appear to be right about, and what I appear to be very very wrong about!
3 Things I was Big RIGHT about…
1- The Cardinals would be dangerous…
I predicted the Cardinals would win the NL Central and be a pretty good team, and I feel great about that in mid-July. Goldschmidt is emerging as an MVP contender, and the rest of the team is starting to catch fire. If the pitching staff can match the lineup, St. Louis could be playing baseball deep into October.
2- The Rays would take a step back…
Firstly, I love the Rays. I think they are such a great team in terms of developing talent and playing above their payroll. BUT, I did think they would take a small step back this season in the toughest division, maybe ever. I see them headed for a fourth place finish and still maybe winning 90 games… such a bad beat for Tampa.
3- Oakland would be bad
This was obvious, so I won’t take too much credit. But there’s always a sense that the A’s will be sneaky competitive, right? Maybe that’s just because of Moneyball, but Oakland has clearly gone fully into the tank. In 2029, watch out for Oakland to be back in the playoffs!
Now what I swung and missed on…
1- The Twins would be average…
I did not fall for the Correa signing because, well, free agent signings usually don’t go well in baseball and the Twins were one of the biggest disappointments of the past decade last season. I thought the Twins would be in the 83-85 win range, but right now they look like they’ll be closer to 90 wins and maybe even a division title. My apologies Twins fans, I slightly underrated you!
2- The Angels were contenders…
I felt soooo good about this prediction at the 1st quarter polls when they were rolling. Now, after they fired one of the best managers in history they seemingly have no chance at making the playoffs. They have two generational talents and somehow can’t even sniff .500. What a waste.
3- The Padres would not be contenders…
I thought San Diego would finish 4th in the NL West and come nowhere near the playoffs. I did not account for Machado finally living up to his potential and the Padres being one of the best NL teams. It appears I was wildly wrong about them, and they don’t even have their best player yet.
Bonus Wrong Prediction…
Fuck the Rockies. They are terrible. If you’re reading this, I partially blame you for allowing me to make that horrific prediction. I will never pick Colorado to make the playoffs again. This I vow.
Now Let’s Make Some Playoff Predictions!
AL Wild Card:
Minnesota Twins def Cleveland Guardians
Toronto Blue Jays def Boston Red Sox
NL Wild Card:
St. Louis Cardinals def Atlanta Braves
San Diego Padres def Milwaukee Brewers
New York Yankees def Toronto Blue Jays 3-0
Houston Astros def Minnesota Twins 3-2
Los Angeles Dodgers def San Diego Padres 3-1
St. Louis Cardinals def New York Mets 3-2
New York Yankees def Houston Astros 4-2
St. Louis Cardinals def Los Angeles Dodgers 4-1
New York Yankees def St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 (WS MVP: Aaron Judge)
AL MVP: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees)
Judge is absolutely ripping through the league in 2022, and the Yankees have by far the best team. This is an easy choice, and there’s no need to overthink this.
NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt (St. Louis Cardinals)
Machado and Acuna are playing really well and are alive in this race, but the way Goldschmidt & the Cards are rolling right now, it’s his award to lose. I love that after years of withering away in Arizona he’s finally getting his due on a bigger stage.
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander (Houston Astros)
Verlander has held steady through both quarter polls so far, and I expect him to continue. But can we just appreciate his dominance at this age, off of Tommy John? This is one of the most remarkable seasons we’ve ever seen.
NL Cy Young: Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres)
Musgrove leads the NL in quality starts, near the top in ERA and is the ace of one of the best teams in the league. With Scherzer missing significant time, this one is up for grabs but Musgrove has a (faint) grip on it for now.
AL Manager of the Year: Aaron Boone (New York Yankees)
Finally! I have always said Boone is a good manager, and this whole witch hunt to fire him is absurd. Boone is smart and knows how to manage the players, and he’s going to have a phenomenal record this season.
NL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter (New York Mets)
Buck was in the pole position at the 1st quarter poll, and his lead has grown. Since then, Scherzer hit the DL and deGrom still hasn’t shown up, and somehow they are still leading the NL East and look like contenders. I was skeptical of this hiring, but I was clearly wrong.
AL RoY: Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners)
Rodriguez is not on a good team, but he’s playing like he’s a star already. This is a fairly weak field in the AL, but regardless of that Rodgriguez looks like he has a bright future.
NL RoY: Mackenzie Gore (San Diego Padres)
I went with Gore over Suzuki and Greene because he’s contributing on a really good team, and that matters to me. I’ve always been high on Gore, and think he could be a star. Winning RoY could be the first of many, many awards.
There you have it! Make sure to check back in around the second-third week of August for the 3rd quarter polls to see what picks of mine have changed, what has stayed the same, and where the season is going!